Cheltenham 4.50 Kim Muir
Kim Muir - Cheltenham 4.50 - 3 miles 2 Furlongs - 23 run - Going Good to Soft
The Kim Muir is probably the weakest of the handicap chases of the week and is usually a race contested by amateur jockeys but, due to Covid restrictions, it’s the professionals who get the chance to ride in the race this year. In some ways, that makes finding the winner a little harder as having a top amateur jockey on board has been key in recent renewals.
As the current betting suggests, this is a wide open race and with 23 set to go to post it’s nice to see so many enhanced place offers on show.
After a long period where they didn’t have many winners in this race, the Irish have really come to the fore in recent years and the runners of Gordon Elliott, in particular, have warranted particular attention. Although now trained under a different name, in reality, the horses at this year’s Festival have had 99% of their preparation done by that trainer and ‘Sneezy’ Foster has one running from the yard this year. Mount Ida was a winning 3-mile PTP horse but is yet to win over 2 miles under rules and, indeed, has not raced beyond 2m 6f so this is a big step up in trip. This is her first venture into handicap company but she has been running well in graded mares events. She was well beaten on her only previous visit to Cheltenham and, whilst, this looks like it could be a long-term plan and she has been well-supported ante-post, her price doesn’t offer any value based on what she’s done so far and it's more about potential.
Kerry Lee will be hoping to have a good day on Thursday with her star mare. Happy Diva, running in an earlier handicap and the same connections run STORM CONTROL here. He is the likely pace angle in this race and has made all around here twice already this season. He jumped excellently in the second of those over this course-and-distance, in softer ground than ideal, but just idled near the end and only won by a length. He has an entry in The Grand National but needs about 20 horses ahead of him to come out so this may now be the main aim. His stamina was stretched last time at Warwick, in deep ground, and this test should suit more. He wears cheekpieces and may not have finished improving. He looks to have a decent each-way chance at the prices.
The first two days have illustrated, once again, the importance of previous Festival form and there are a number in here with previous at these 4 days. There are 4 horses from last year’s race that come back here again and all of them could be given a chance based on their exploits 12 months ago as they filled the 4 places from 2nd to 5th.
Kilfilum Cross has actually finished 2nd in this race the last two years and, taking into account his jockey’s claim this year, he is 6lbs lower than last year. He has shown no form since last year but his record in the race commands respect.
BOB MAHLER was third last year and he has had a frustrating season. He had tack issues in two of his races, after undergoing wind surgery, but then ran very respectably when finishing 3rd at Musselburgh last month in very deep ground over 4 miles. He will prefer the better ground here and has, also, won over course-and-distance in the past and is 5lbs lower than a year ago. The trainer won this in 2018 and this has been the season aim once more for this 9 year-old. He looks a prime candidate for one of the enhanced places.
Finishing 4th last year was Plan Of Attack and he returns here for the very much in-form team of Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore. He is 3lbs lower than last year and blinkers are applied for the first time on the back of what has been a disappointing campaign so far. He acts well on this drier ground and is another for the short-list.
A horse with plenty of previous Festival experience is SHANTOU FLYER. He has been placed in The Foxhunters, under his owner jockey, in the past 2 years whilst, the year before that, he also finished 2nd in The Ultima. Throw into the mix his 2 wins and 2 placed efforts here in non-Festival races and it’s easy to see that he goes well at the venue. He has an excellent record, also, on good ground and is now 12lbs lower than when finishing 2nd in The Ultima 3 years ago. He was raised by 5lb by the handicapper after his 2nd place finish at Wincanton last month but the trainer appealed and this was reduced by 1lb subsequently. The fact that they bothered to appeal the rise indicates that they mean business here. He is an 11 year-old now and may find one or two improving younger horses better handicapped but he should run a solid race and looks another worthy contender for one of the places at least.
Others in here for whom a case could be made based on previous course or Festival form are Deise Aba, who was 5th in this race last year off this mark, Crievehill, who was 4th the year before off the same mark and now gets his ideal ground for the first time in quite some time, and Hold The Note who was 3rd in a strong renewal of the 2 ½ mile novice chase last March. At a bigger price than all of those, I think SIZING AT MIDNIGHT could run well now that the ground is drying. He has only had 7 chase starts and in the 4 where the word “good” has appeared in the going description he has won twice and finished 2nd once. The only time he didn’t make the frame was when he fell 3 fences from home when disputing the lead in The Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton in November. He looked set to play a part in the finish there and was travelling strongly. He runs here off the same mark having been dropped 2lbs following his run on unsuitable heavy going last time back at Wincanton. After a torrid few months, the Tizzard yard have had a few run quite well so far this week and there are signs that the horses are coming back to form. The one negative is a lack of experience at this venue but the price, perhaps, factors that in a little.
With it being difficult to confidently rule many out of this, I think it is worth taking on those near the head of the market. Of those, I think Plan Of Attack, perhaps, holds the strongest claims but, although the Irish horses have done well in recent years, the fact that the top amateurs have been able to come across has probably meant that a couple of stronger Irish contenders have not been declared and, so, I will stake a total of 4 points across 4 British-trained horses who are all currently trading at double-figure odds and hopefully a couple, at least, will land some enhanced each-way place money (or maybe better!).
TRACKERS – Storm Control/ Shantou Flyer/ Bob Mahler/ Sizing At Midnight (all ½ pt each-way) – 4pts staked