Doncaster 2.35
Lincoln Handicap - Doncaster 3.10 Class 2 - 1 mie - 21 run - Going - Good
This Saturday sees a bit of a ‘lull’ in the quality of jumps action on offer and the main focus of the day will be the start of the flat turf season, in the UK, up at Doncaster.
The highlight of the meeting is The Lincoln Handicap run over the straight mile.
It is always a fiendishly difficult race to solve and, with it being the first day of the season, a maximum field of 22 runners and we have a combination of horses in here with regards to their form/build-up to the race. Some will be coming into the race on the back of long lay-offs since the end of last season, some will have had a few spins on the all-weather during the winter and one horse has had a bit of winter sunshine racing out in Dubai.
The top of the market has been dominated by two horses this week and one of them is the horse who arrives here after a recent run at Meydan. That horse is the 4 year-old EASTERN WORLD who won a 9 furlong handicap in Dubai last month in clear fashion. His 5lb penalty for winning there ensures he gets into this race for the trainer-jockey combination who were successful in the last renewal back in 2019. I’m never fully convinced that Meydan form translates to form in the UK (particularly this early in the season after all the travelling etc) and the horse’s form here last year was not particularly outstanding. His early season exploits were promising but he failed to fire in either of his last two starts and was, subsequently, gelded just before the winter. That may have done the trick, judging by his win last month, but, whilst he may be the sort of progressive horse usually needed to win this race, his price is too short for me to take in a race of this nature given some of the doubts.
Challenging EASTERN WORLD for favouritism is HAQEEQY who represents the new training combination of father-and-son John and Thady Gosden. He, too, is the type of progressive 4 year-old that has done well in this contest in recent years and has 3 career wins to his name from his 5 starts. The last of those wins came in impressive fashion, at this venue, last September when he had EASTERN WORLD some 13 lengths behind in 9th place. That came over 7 furlongs and, whilst he showed no signs of stopping that day, he is yet to win over a mile. His only attempt at today’s distance ended in defeat when he trailed in last of the 10 runners at Newmarket last July. He is another who has been gelded over the winter and has gone up 8lbs for that last win. Connections look to negate much of that with the booking of a young claimer, who takes off 7lbs, but, whilst he has done very well on the all-weather this winter, this will be his first ride on turf in this country so it is a big leap of faith. The horse, clearly, has potential to rise through the rankings and, although the newly formed training partnership had their first winner under the joint licence on Friday, they will be looking to get their first big winner here.
HAQEEQY is owned by the daughter of Hamdan Al Maktoum, who sadly passed away earlier this week, and he would be a poignant winner of the race. That comment also applies, of course, to a runner who will be carrying the Maktoum’s famous blue silks and that is DANYAH. He is trained by Owen Burrows who is a trainer that, usually, doesn’t run many this early in the season so that may be significant in itself. The horse is another with winning form up the Doncaster straight, having won a 7f contest here last June, but, equally important, he also has winning form over a mile. That came in his final start of last season when he won a decent class 2 handicap at Haydock on good ground. His two wins last season both came on decent ground, with his defeats (where he finished 3rd behind winners who re-oppose here) both coming on soft going. The likely ground conditions here, therefore, should be in his favour.
One of the races in which DANYAH was defeated came at Newbury In August where the victor was RIVER NYMPH. There is a 6lb swing in the weights here and the ground will not be anywhere near as soft as that day, so it is easy to see the form being reversed, but Clive Cox’s charge does warrant serious respect and the horse who split them back in August has since gone up 18lbs in the handicap following a series of smart efforts subsequently. RIVER NYMPH was well-touted for the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot Champions Day meeting in October but faded badly on his first try at a mile so does have it to prove over this trip.
Another horse to finish ahead of DANYAH last term was HORTZADAR. This 6 year-old enjoyed quite a productive season last year, getting his head in front at the line 3 times. Unfortunately, on the first of those occasions he was subsequently disqualified for weighing-in light so his victory against DANYAH, at Ripon in August, was his first official success of the year. He followed that with victory at Goodwood before his season somewhat petered out with down-the-field efforts at York and Ascot (in The Balmoral). It could be that he was a bit over the top at that point, after a hard season, or it could be that the handicapper had finally caught up with him. He is only 1lb lower here than at Ascot but the trainer enlists the services of his claiming jockey to take off 5lbs and, hopefully, make him more competitive. This jockey was on board for the Ripon success, so there is no problem there, but his draw in stall 1 may be an issue.
HORTZADAR is one of two runners in the race for David O’Meara and, although he boasts just one winner of the race in the last 10 years, he has had another five horses in the frame. It is, clearly, a race he likes to target. His second entry is ORBAAN. This horse has had rather mixed fortunes since joining the yard from Andre Fabre and his form rather tailed off after a victory at York last July. He is another who disappointed in The Balmoral Handicap on his last run and he has had wind surgery over the winter. He is a horse who likes to be held up and come off a strong pace so it is likely that this race could play to his strengths. He is only 2lbs above his last winning mark and could run a big race at attractive odds.
Michael Dods doesn’t have many in the big races at this meeting but, when he does, they tend to run very well. He runs the 4 year-old BRUNCH here and he won three times last year including on his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle. He progressed nicely last season and finished the season rated some 24lbs higher than at the start. His last win came at York, over a mile on good ground, at York where he had EASTERN WORLD some 3 ½ lengths behind back in 5th. He was, then, beaten a short-head by, the top-weight here, JOHAN at Ayr but is some 7lbs better off here. Whilst he was well beaten in two listed events on his last two starts, they were run in soft and heavy ground, and his good form has all come on a sound surface which he should get here. His overall profile is a positive one and, with what looks a favourable draw in stall 15, he is definitely one for the short-list.
Of the five horses running here who contested The Balmoral Handicap at Ascot, in October, the one who fared best was KING OTTOKAR who finished 6th. He didn’t get the clearest of runs that day and that was also the case when he ran over this course-and-distance in September, finishing 5th. He is a horse who stays further than this, and finished 3rd in a Group 3 at Royal Ascot in 2019, but, whilst he is a horse who is well-regarded by his trainer, he does flatter to deceive somewhat. He, also, looks to prefer a softer surface than is likely here.
Another who would, probably, prefer an easier surface is one-time Derby prospect BRENTFORD HOPE. He never built on his promise as a 2 year-old and it was only when dropped back to this trip, at Haydock in October, that he showed anything like the form that had been expected of him. The major factor in both his victories to date has been the underfoot conditions. His win as a 2 year-old came on soft whilst it was heavy ground when he won at Haydock. He would need significant rain to boost his chances.
ASCENSION is a horse who has attracted some support in the market in the last few days and, given the trainer and jockey, it’s understandable. Both have excellent records at this venue although are yet to taste success in this race. This 4 year-old raced mainly over 7f last season and won twice in a pair of class 3 handicaps. He looks more like a converted sprinter, and has a good turn of foot, rather than a horse who will stay further than this in time but he did run respectably on his first try at a mile on his last start of the season when finishing 2nd at Leicester.
The horse who beat ASCENSION at Leicester re-opposes here and that is DASHING ROGER. That race at Leicester was run in heavy ground but the other two wins in this 4 year-olds 8-race career both came on good to firm going so a lack of rain will not inconvenience him in any way. Unlike a few others of his age in here, he has had a lot of racing already (16 starts) and, although his races have been split equally between turf and all-weather, his best form has definitely come on the turf and he has only finished out of the first 3 once in his 8 turf starts so far and is yet to finish out of the first 2 over this mile trip. This is clearly a step up in class compared to most of his runs to date but he has taken each step up the ladder in his stride so far and it would not be a surprise to see him run well at big odds.
Richard Hannon runs a couple of interesting contenders and the first of those was one who caught my eye in the trial for this race at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago and that is MAN OF THE NIGHT. Yet another 4 year-old, this horse has had a rather patchy record since he won on debut as a 2 year-old and that debut win remains his only victory. His best performance last season came in his final run when he finished 2nd but he was well supported for the trial race and was denied a clear run at the business end of the race when trying to make his move in a contest that suited those who raced up with the pace. He may just need further than this one mile trip however.
MAN OF THE NIGHT went into my notebook after that trial race but it is interesting that Sean Levey jumps ship here to take the ride on Hannon’s other runner in the contest and that is OUZO. Now aged 5, he had a very good season as a 3 year-old, winning 3 times and finishing 2nd on another occasion from just 5 runs on turf. He returned last season with a 2nd place finish to, Cambridgeshire 3rd, Bell Rock, when just caught in the final strides and, on the back of that, was sent off as a joint-favourite for the Silver Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. He could only finish 8th there, but was ahead of HORTZADAR, and was gelded not long after. He ran in a very hot handicap at York’s Ebor meeting, finishing 5th, and, after an unsuccessful attempt at stepping up to 1m 2f, he returned with a win at York on his final start of the year in a race where both the 2nd and 4th home franked the form subsequently with victories. This demands a career-best but he is nicely drawn and has run well fresh after a break in the past.
One who does have the benefit of a recent run, and victory, on the all-weather is GROVE FERRY. He won a small-field contest at Lingfield last month, keeping on well over a mile trip, but has to carry a 5lb penalty for that which means he is 3lbs ‘wrong’ at the weights following his revised mark. As a result of this, 5lb claimer, William Carver, has been booked to offset this and the horse did benefit from the urgings of Ryan Moore last time. Although the Lingfield win was his first since his 2 year-old days, the horse did run well at this course last October when just beaten by the now 105-rated Tomfre over 7f. That horse followed up with another victory in November and GROVE FERRY holds several of his opponents here through collateral form with Tomfre.
After much deliberation, I eventually whittled down the field to a short-list of 5 and, as explained above, whilst EASTERN WORLD has much going for him, the price is a major factor in me passing him over here, given the couple of small doubts I have. If anybody wants to have a win ‘saver’ on Charlie Aplleby’s charge then I wouldn’t put anybody off.
The other horse to just miss out on my final selection list is DASHING ROGER but he is my ‘shrapnel bet’ horse at his current big odds given the enhanced places.
As ever with these handicaps, you often need a horse with plenty up his sleeve in terms of ratings and the market seems to have found a couple of the more likely candidates in that regard in EASTERN WORLD and HAQEEQY. A horse, however, who I believe has got just as positive a profile as those two is DANYAH and he is currently trading at more than twice the price of the other two. He was very progressive last season and showed his best form on a decent surface. The fact that he has won on seasonal debut in both of his previous seasons shows that he goes well fresh and, if his jockey can get this keen-going sort settled in the middle of the pack, he should have a decent pace to aim at from his middle draw position.
BRUNCH is another who looks to tick a lot of boxes for me in this and he, also, has what looks like a good draw in and around the early pace. He, too, won on seasonal debut last year and enjoyed a productive year until he hit the soft ground of the autumn. His trainer is a shrewd operator and he has solid form over the trip. He gained victories in photos twice at York last year and looks a battler who will not go down without a fight if it gets tight at the finish.
For a third pick, I’m going to take a chance on OUZO. Yes, he needs to produce a career-best and he may need further than this in time but this could be a stiff test over a mile into a likely headwind here and I’ve no doubt this has been the plan for a horse who looks like he is still on the upgrade.
TIP: DANYAH. Trackers: BRUNCH, OUZO
Suggested ‘shrapnel bet’: DASHING ROGER