Martin Pipe - Cheltenham 5.30
The final race of the week and not always the easiest to solve as it’s often one where many trainers have plotted one specifically.
One who is no stranger to such plots is Gordon Elliott and he makes no secret of his desire to win this contest each year given his association with The Pipe yard in the past. He has 4 entered in here, including the well-touted COLUMN OF FIRE, but the one who intrigues me is the one at the bottom of the card ESCARIA TEN. He was, originally, first reserve, having missed the cut, but gets his chance following the withdrawal of the top-weight who is also trained by Elliott! Ever since that news broke on Thursday morning the price has been shortening. He was, at one point, being aimed at The Albert Bartlett, which takes place earlier in the day, as he has been running over 3 miles, but clearly this was seen as a better route. Given his assured stamina, I would expect him to be given a very positive ride and make this a test. He warrants a Tracker selection.
The current favourite is FRONT VIEW and he represents last year’s winning owner/trainer/jockey combination. He started off life over hurdles by finishing 2nd to Envoi Allen, and we all saw how good he is earlier in the week, and last time out did not have the clearest of passages when finishing 2nd after a 3 month break at Thurles. He is a worthy favourite but is a short price for a race of this nature so I will oppose him.
The winner of that Thurles race last time was FIVE O’CLOCK and he finished 6 lengths clear of Joseph O’Brien’s horse. He does meet him on 6lbs worse terms so they should, in theory, finish closer together but he is a much bigger price and appears to be the better jumper of the two. His opening handicap mark may prove to be a generous one in due course and he offers some each-way value here for a stable that has won the race 3 times in the past.
A trainer who knows how to target big-field handicaps is Dan Skelton and FLASH THE STEEL looks very much like one of his ‘plot jobs’. He has a little more experience than some of the others in here and opened this season with an excellent win in Chepstow’s Silver Trophy in October. He beat a very good field that day with many of the horses subsequently franking the form with wins over both timber and fences. He is a very consistent horse and has only finished outside the front 5 on one occasion in his career. That came last time when he clearly found the step up to 3 miles at Haydock too much. The step back in trip here to a distance he has won over should suit him better and he also get the aid of first-time cheekpieces. He has been off the track for 111 days but his trainer has shown patience before in readying a horse for a Festival handicap and his win at Chepstow also came after a lengthy break so it should not be a concern.
The race that FLASH THE STEEL ran in at Haydock also featured UMBRIGADO and he, too, looked as though he didn’t stay the trip. He runs here bidding to give his trainer a first win in the race named after his father. He hasn’t quite been seeing out his races so they apply a first time tongue-tie here and cheek-pieces. The trainer’s record with horses with a tongue-tie fitted for the first time is very good, as he boasts a 21% strike-rate, so this is a positive move. The horse had some decent form last season as a novice and he could still be progressive. The trip looks about right for him and he has a very good conditional on board, in Jack Tudor, who, of course won The Welsh Grand National in December.
Others I noted as having a lively each-way chance are PILEON and THE BOSSES OSCAR whilst it would not be a surprise to see MY SISTER SARAH run well at a big price