Sandown 2.25 - Imperial Cup
Elite - Sandown 2.25 Imperial Cup - Handicap Hurdle - Grade 3 - Class 1 - 2 miles (Good to Soft) 15 run
With just 3 days to go until the curtain comes up on what is, for many, the highlight of the jumps season, this weekend is a bit like the calm before the storm. There is, however, one race that, traditionally, sets punters a puzzle to solve on this day and that is The Imperial Cup. This year a field of 15 are set to line up and, as is often the case with these big Saturday handicaps, we do have some nice enhanced place offers to try to take advantage of.
There is often added interest for trainers as the race sponsors often offer a bonus incentive for any horse who wins this race and then goes on to taste success at Cheltenham. That sees a number of the bigger yards, therefore, target the race although only one yard, The Pipe stable, have successfully completed the double – doing so on 3 occasions.
The Pipe yard field two runners this year. EAMON AN CNOIC has spent the last couple of seasons racing over fences and had started to look regressive last year. He has, however, been somewhat revitalised by the switch to hurdles since the turn of the year and comes here on the back of three solid efforts with a win over course-and-distance last month being sandwiched by a pair of runner-up efforts at Chepstow. His win here last month was in a much weaker contest than this, although he did win by 20 lengths, whilst last time out he was not disgraced when beaten a progressive novice who is set to try his luck in The Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham next week. He, obviously, acts at the track but I suspect he would prefer much softer ground than he is likely to get here.
LEONCAVELLO is yet to race over hurdles for the yard, having joined from Dr Newland just over a year ago, but was in good form on the flat last summer and also won a chase. His last run came in The Cesarewitch in October where he ran creditably, to finish 6th, but probably found his stamina stretched by the trip. He has run well fresh in the past, so the break should not be too much of an issue, and he is only 2lbs higher than when finishing 3rd in the 2018 Galway Hurdle behind Sharjah. He was only beaten by 3 lengths, in receipt of 6lbs, and that horse, who lines up in The Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, is now rated as a 164 horse. He has to be taken seriously, given his yard’s history with this race, and, like his stable-mate, he has entries next week as connections eye up a potential crack at the bonus.
The Gary Moore-trained NATURAL HISTORY has been all the rage in the betting during the week and, at the time of writing, is now clear favourite. Trained by Andrew Balding for The Queen, he was a useful type on the flat and finished last season rated as a 100+ horse. He claimed the scalp of, now stable-mate, Goshen when winning at Goodwood in October and then stepped up on that to finish 2nd in the Group 3 St Simon Stakes at Newbury. He clearly has ability, therefore, and it was a little surprising that he failed to win on hurdles debut in January at Plumpton. A further defeat followed at Wincanton before he showed himself clearly well treated, off 116, when winning easily back at Plumpton at the start of this month. He has gone up 16lbs as a result which, compared to his flat rating, means he could still have plenty in hand but he is, obviously, facing a stiffer task now. This is only his fourth run over hurdles and he could have plenty of progression left in him still. His flat speed could be a handy attribute here and, whilst he has shown a tendency to race keenly, the likely fast pace here should also suit. He is in the “could be anything” category for me but, whilst I respect his yard’s record at this track, he offers no value at all at the current price.
Paul Nicholls runs 3 in this race and he has the top weight on the card in MIRANDA. She won a grade 2 mares event at Doncaster in January and has been put up 3lbs for that win. Connections have decided to take 7lbs off her back by utilising the stable’s claiming jockey and he did win on her at Ludlow earlier in the season when she got the better of MISS HERITAGE who re-opposes here. She is actually 1lb better off with that rival here having finished ½ length ahead on that occasion.
The fact that they utilise a claimer on the top weight means that the horse who will actually carry the most weight on his back in the race is Nicholls’ second runner and that is DIEGO DU CHARMIL. He is a horse who has returned to hurdles in the last 12 months, following a couple of seasons chasing, but this is his first venture into handicap company since contesting The County Hurdle at Cheltenham in March 2017. He is 4lbs lower than on that occasion but is still 5lbs higher than his last winning mark and he has to produce a career best to win this.
The third of runner for Nicholls is in the same ownership as DIEGO DU CHARMIL and that is MALAYA. This 7 year-old mare was a tip for this service last time, at Ascot, where she ran a disappointing race, on the face of it, to finish just 8th. It could be that the step up in trip worked against her, and she is undoubtedly better over this trip, but, watching the race at the time, the ride just screamed of ‘another day’ to me and she, immediately, went into my notebook as one to look out for next time. With no engagements next week at Cheltenham, it could be that this was the race connections had in mind all along as her main target for the season. She actually won this race the last time it was run here in 2019 (last year it was abandoned) and is now 2lbs lower than on that occasion. The race was run at a strong pace and that scenario looks likely here, again, so that should suit her. She, also, made a bad mistake 2 flights from home and did well to recover so was probably worth more than the official winning distance says. Her experience in these big-field handicaps could be important and I wouldn’t rule out a repeat victory here, with the rain that fell during Friday afternoon doing her chances no harm whatsoever.
An interesting runner on the card is the bottom-weight HASANABAD who runs for Ian Williams. The trainer, who is in excellent form in the last week or so, won this race in 2017 with the ill-fated London Prize and bids for success here with this rather unexposed 6 year-old. Formerly with Dermot Weld on the flat in Ireland, he has raced just 3 times over hurdles, winning on debut in September and, then, after a spell on the all-weather, finishing 3rd on his return over timber just a week ago. On that result, however, he is well held by MALAYA, on a line through the winner, and he would not want the ground to get too soft.
Just one place ahead of HASANABAD last week at Market Rasen was HIGHWAY ONE O TWO. He had an excellent novice hurdle campaign, winning all of his first 3 starts, but, after an unsuccessful spell chasing, he has is yet to win on any of his 3 races over timber since then. He has dropped 8lbs in the ratings in that time and, if returning to the form of his Dovecote win last season at Kempton, he could be reasonably well handicapped here.
Dan Skelton has shown all season that his horses are worthy of respect in races of this nature and he runs the 5 year-old LANGER DAN here. I first noticed this horse when he ran in last season’s Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at The Cheltenham Festival, finishing 6th after having his run blocked several times after the final turn, and just missing out in a blanket photo for 3rd place. His first two runs of this season were disappointing and, after the second of those, he was given wind surgery before returning after a 3 month break last month to run a very eye-catching race at Market Rasen. He finished 4th that day, finishing strongly under and hands and heels ride, after looking really out-paced at one stage of the race. It could that it took him a while to realise that he could breathe properly again when exerting himself and this second run since the procedure may build on that. The stiffer test of this track may also suit him more. He was behind two of today’s rivals (MICK MAESTRO and MISS HERITAGE) but is better off at the weights here. He is 5lbs lower than for his Cheltenham run and, with an entry next week, the shrewd connections will have their eyes on the bonus. He is ridden by Harry Skelton for the first time since that Cheltenham run but the one startling statistic that is a little off-putting is the trainer’s record of zero wins from 28 runners in hurdles at this track over the last 5 years.
The aforementioned MICK MAESTRO is a strong-travelling sort for Lincolnshire trainer Nick Kent and he went powerfully for much of that race at Market Rasen last month. Previously with both Tom George and, then, Alan King, he has quite a consistent profile over hurdles, finishing in the top 4 of all 10 of his completed starts in the discipline. This is, undoubtedly, however, his biggest challenge yet and, following his wide-margin win over MISS HERITAGE at Catterick in December, he is now 18lbs higher in the handicap than he was at the start of the season.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this event twice in the last four runnings and he is represented here by the 6 year-old novice ONE TRUE KING. He is a former pointer who only joined this yard just over 12 months ago and, after running creditably in The Cheltenham Bumper last March, has had a very good novice season over hurdles. He has won 2 of his 7 races and finished in the places in 4 of the others, including a couple of competitive big-field events at Cheltenham in the autumn. Stepped up in trip, he was sent off as favourite for The Lanzarote Hurdle but, clearly, failed to get home in the soft ground and finished out of the frame for the first time in his hurdling career. Last time, he dropped back to 2m 3f for a novice event at Ascot and ran well from the front before a bad mistake two hurdles out scuppered any chance he held and he finished 3rd. Back to 2 miles here, and on better ground, he should find this more suitable and goes off a realistic-looking handicap mark. He is entered in The Ballymore at Cheltenham but will face a stiff task there and this prize may be more within his scope. Definitely one for the shortlist.
Off the same handicap mark as ONE TRUE KING here is the Emma Lavelle horse HANG IN THERE. Sporting the same colours as those that will be worn by Paisley Park in next week’s Stayers Hurdle, this 7 year-old has finished 6th in all 4 of his races so far this season. Those results are in contrast to his early hurdling efforts in the autumn of 2019 when he followed a maiden hurdle win at Exeter with a commanding win a Cheltenham novice. That persuaded connections to send him to The Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle, at this course, last January but he was well beaten and, again, looked beaten when falling behind Shishkin at Huntingdon next time out. His runs this season have mainly come on soft going, which is probably not what he wants, whilst two of them have come at around the 2 ½ mile trip which, again, I don’t believe, he doesn’t really want. This trip looks ideal and, providing the ground is not too testing, he may benefit from the break he has been given since his last run. He didn’t help himself last time out at Kempton with a very poor round of jumping and it could be argued he did well to finish in the position he did given this. He has been dropped 14lbs in the ratings since his Tolworth outing and could now be very well-handicapped. He has been the subject of support in the market during Friday so it seems I may not be only one of that opinion.
Evan Williams had a couple of horses, for the same owners, entered in this at the 5-day stage but has chosen to go with just MACK THE MAN who won on his last visit to this track some 15 months ago. He won a strong-looking listed contest on that occasion, beating the likes of Protektorat and Song For Someone, with MALAYA some way behind. On the back of that win, he was sent off as one of the favourites for last season’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and was still in with a chance when brought down at the last hurdle. After an aborted novice chase campaign earlier this season, he returned over hurdles with a win at Wincanton in January before running down the field back in this year’s Betfair Hurdle last month. He was forced to race wide for much of that contest and never really threatened but he has been dropped 4lbs by the handicapper which means he is just 1lb above his last winning mark and only 6lbs higher than when winning that race here last season. He does handle plenty of cut in the ground so, if the ground does ride softer than currently advertised, he could run a big race at decent odds.
To win these big handicaps, you often need to have somewhere between 5-10lbs in hand from the official handicapper and if there is one horse who could definitely have that it is NATURAL HISTORY judged by his exploits on the flat, despite the recent 16lb rise. The fact remains, however, that his only win over hurdles came against just 4 rivals and it wasn’t the strongest of contests. He faces a lot more battle-hardened handicappers here and, whilst he could still win easily, I’m willing to look elsewhere in the race for selections given his price.
At bigger prices, I think both HANG IN THERE and MACK THE MAN could run well off marks that do not look to represent their full potential or ability but two horses who could, also, still have several pounds in hand from the official handicapper are LANGER DAN and ONE TRUE KING.
The former looks to have been aimed at this by a trainer who is well-known for being able to target races and he is 5lbs below the mark he ran well from at last year’s Festival. He is entered in The Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle next week and will probably need to win here to get in. The latter may not have as much in hand on the ratings but he is progressive and drops back to what looks like his best trip here for a stable that have had recent success in this race. He may not want the ground to get too soft however.
For a final pick, with the excellent enhanced place offers that are available, I think it is worth giving another chance to MALAYA. This one is far more exposed than the other two but is 2lbs lower than when winning the race 2 years ago and I cannot get away from the feeling that the ride last time out was with this race in mind. She will relish the likely strong pace and is one who will not mind if the ground is softer than forecast.
Presumably, Harry Cobden would have had the choice of the Nicholls horses, so I’m a little surprised he chose DIEGO DU CHARMIL, but I’m more than happy to see Bryony Frost in the saddle and would not be surprised to see her make the frame at the very least at likely double-figure odds.
There is a hectic week ahead so I would advise not going in too heavy with the stakes on this race, and I intend to play with just half my normal stakes here, but hopefully we can swell the coffers a little ahead of Tuesday.
Trackers: LANGER DAN, ONE TRUE KING, MALAYA