Ayr 2.32
Ayr 2.32 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles 70 yards - Heavy - 12 run
A competitive race where it was hard to rule too much out in good old fashioned Ayr mud.
There are some strong formlines, none better than a race here earlier in the year where The Ogle Gogle Man was a remote runner up to an inform horse beating Cairnshill, Wind Of Hope and Final Fling, in to the next 4 positions in the process. Strictly on the formbook the one that comes best out of the various changes from the handicapper since is WIND OF HOPE.
The Ogle Gogle Man gets a subsequent penalty for a win last time out, which franks this formline from that Ayr race. Cairnshill gets a slight pull but WIND OF HOPE gets a 7lbs pull for 4 lengths and also has the benefit of being 4lbs lower than when winning this race last year, that proven Course and Distance form franked again seals a tip for me today.
Final Fling is a "cliff horse" who has disappointed many times since last winning off a mark of 101 in January 2018, runs off 85 today, there may still be something in this horse and for that reason one of those "shrapnel" punts some will follow and others will hate.
Of the remainder and lurking at a nice each way price is the very unexposed GOLD CLERMONT, a 3 mile P2P winner, has run 4 times under rules over hurdles and 2 miles and now jumps straight in to a 3 mile Handicap Hurdle with no transition up the distances in incremental terms. How good the handicap mark or indeed the horse is, we may find out today but it's interesting enough for me to have a small wager.
TIP - Wind Of Hope / Tracker - Gold Clermont (see notes re Final Fling)