Exeter 3.52
THE ADVISOR - Exeter 3.52 - Handicap Chase - Class 3 - 3 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - 9 run - Good to Soft
I'd wager the going will be on the soft side for this marathon trip and only a few horses have proven form at the distance and in the ground conditions.
Revels Hill is a very short priced favourite but has very obvious claims with best form right handed at up to 3 and a half miles and it's just a case of where the ceiling is for the horse. I'd be wanting at least 2/1 though to jump round here let alone win so am not adverse to taking it on. There are only 9 runners so effectively we are looking to finish second + third and hopefully beat the favourite.
Young Bull is unexposed at the trip fit and fresh but goes in to uncharted stamina territory up the final climb in the last half mile and those proven stayers will be seeking to pounce, Coolvalla went 1111 before being pulled up at Cheltenham just over a week ago and is up to a mark of 130 and that just puts me off that one here. Poppa Poutine looks on a slightly high mark and would probably prefer more Good than Soft underfoot but rates a genuine danger. Copperhead last won in 2020, is in the Tracker but has become very disappointing although on the credit side the Tizzard yard are in pretty decent form right now so this is one that could fire at any time.
I was left with 3 in a shortlist. GWNECILY BERBAS won over course and distance for us impressively when tipped on its penultimate run off a mark of 113, it's up to a mark of 119 but is 2 runs and 2 wins over course and distance and the previous win was of 124 and therefore a mark of 119 today looks reasonable enough. SAMUEL JACKSON has lost a bit of consistency with age but long distance Chases on soft ground are his bag and he deserves a good run and a win and just starts to look very well handicapped for me IF he can enjoy a nice rhythm and not get too fast an early pace here. He narrowly got the second preference vote over FAVOURI DE SIVOLA who is a Course and Distance winner in soft off a mark of 115 and who may have had excuses the last twice and who will be a danger back here off a mark of 118.
TIPS (1) Gwencily Berbas / (2) Samuel Jackson