This race has often been run in a bog and genuinely heavy conditions. The heavy rain on Wednesday hit the Course but like Cheltenham it has had 2 drying days since, gets more dry weather today and with a bit of wind around, it should be riding on the better side of soft. The Track hasn't been "opened up" though like Cheltenham so I would make the assessment that it will be that "dead ground" between soft and yielding that some horses like and others don't. 

 

I think it will be attritional, may not suit 3 milers stepping up who would hunt round on better Going (like it was here last year) and may play to those more exposed and experienced at the trip and be all about jumping from fence to fence and rhythm.

 

Let's see what that throws up.

 

Pace is highly likely to come from Yala Enki who I'd expect to be right in the van until they turn in final time, how many are left in contention will be key to the result. Bryony has not had much to ride the past few days and will see this as her big race of the week and as brilliant as Rachel Blackmore is, I'd argue until the cows come home that if you stuck Bryony on the horses Rachel rides then the results would not be much different. So Yala Enki looks sure to be a massive factor in the race in terms of pace and don't rule out a famous pillar to post ride.

 

I do think that that will set up stablemate TRUCKERS LODGE perfectly. It won this race in 2020 off a mark of 141, went up to levels well above 150 for a while but has been very cleverly placed and back to a mark of 149 on it's 4th run of the season clearly aimed at this race and I think at around 7/1 is far better value that last years winner Time To Get Up who is sure to make another bold effort but at 3/1 is just too short for me for any 4 mile plus race.

 

Ian tipped up CAPTAIN DRAKE when it won at Exeter last time at 20/1 returning to form with a bang, it gets a 7lbs penalty but ran well in this race in 2020 off a mark of 138 so the 134 looks a nice mark still and they retain the tongue tie and cheek pieces that worked so well at Exeter. I don't think it'll want for stamina it'll all be about getting it to the final 1/2 mile in good nick and in a nice rhythm and having jumped well. 

 

A couple i'd have been more confident about if the ground IS drier than we think are Paddleyouowncanoe and Momella. Dan Skelton and Harry Fry respectively will be hoping these horses can step up to 4 miles and open up new opportunities in the future and IF the early races indicate that the Going is genuinely Good side of Good to Soft then I wouldn't be adverse to have a late few bob on them. My view today is that neither will be sent out to be "bottomed out" and that they may still pick up nice prizes in the closing month of the season or in some of the better summer long distance races.

 

I think Achille has had 3 tough runs in the past 3 months and that may just tell today but like its former stable mate Yala Enki its one you can never discount and the yard could not be in better nick. There are a couple of Irish raiders of whom Screaming Colours may have wished for the Heavy Going of Wednesday to have lasted longer, if it is really sticky its one that you can be assured WILL plod round though to pick up some enhanced place money. Supreme Escape is an interesting one for Evan Williams who has won this race when we've tipped one of his before (Firebird Flyer from memory) and its stepped up significantly in Class, upped 13lbs but still out of the handicap and off bottom weight but its not been stopping and 3 miles and 6 furlongs and rates a lively outsider. De Young Warrior from Jeremy Scott has a similar profile and is very unexposed and gets cheekpieces to help it and is another you definitely can't rule out.

 

If the likes of Evan and Venetia Williams have targeted and had success in this race before for a while around a decade ago it was the possession almost of The Pipe Yard, who delivered a sequence of winners in the race. You'll know that one from that Yard and a host of ex French bred Chasers we are tracking that we have followed is GWENCILLY BERBAS. The form of its Exeter win has stood up well, the run in The Eider has perhaps been overlooked a bit and the drying ground will certainly suit it, it looks to have solid place Claims off a decent mark of 133 and rates a shrapnel pick. 

 

Young Dev and El Paso Wood are in the Tracker, Young Dev is in to unknown territory stamina wise and El Paso Wood is definitely one that's a more long term project we feel for next season once fully acclimatised to UK conditions and with a summer on its back in the fields at the Pipe yard.

 

I wanted to go with a tip, a tracker and a shrapnel bet, if any of them don't run or if you want an added one then my reserve would be FINAL NUDGE who despite being a 13 year old Veteran now was 3rd in this last year off a mark of 132 has won and been a runner up since, has been kept fresh and targeted at this and again off a mark that looks perfectly fine (137) to give it a sporting chance for a Yard who just can't stop winning races.