Cheltenham Thursday 16th March
Cheltenham 2.10 - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final - 3 miles - 23 run - Soft
(Speculator UK / Michael - Ireland)
Speculator -: Walking On Air is the most obvious to me here as I can't make my mind up at all about Thanksforthehelp, it's one of those pipe types that will win doing cartwheels or be pulled up stone cold last, I think you should treat it accordingly and go with your convictions.
Of the more exposed UK types I really am as bullish as it's possible to be at the prices about ITCHY FEET and MILL GREEN at big odds. ITCHY FEET is back Hurdling so runs off a nice protected mark as a result and has had a couple of sighters, it's one of those where I just feel conditions have come right and it has absolutely cast iron stamina too, f they ride it to come late and to use that stamina I think we could get an enhanced place here. MILL GREEN was tipped when 3rd in this last year in very similar conditions and runs off the same mark, its exposed as such but has a good Festival record and we know that the Yard can have a successful tilt at handicaps here with those exposed types as we saw yesterday.
Michael -: I'm just not convinced about Maxxum at the price and off this mark and much prefer THE BOSSES OSCAR as my each way Banker. I'm just not that convinced by much else although one from Ireland that has definite scope is LEVEL NEVERENDING and a similar one from the UK is CAPTAIN MORGS and it would be no surprise if either took a hand in place proceedings.
TIPS (1) Walking On Air / (2) The Bosses Oscar / (3) Itchy Feet / (4) Mill Green (see also Level Neverending + Captain Morgs)
Cheltenham 5.30 - Kim Muir - Amateur Jockey - Handicap Chase - Class 2 - 3 miles 4 furlongs - Soft - 24 run
(Robin - UK / Michael - Ireland)
The quality of this race improves by the year but Conditions by race time may be very attritional.
Robin - I think that the very nature of this race these days plays in to the strengths of the Irish horses and jockeys and they have far more experience of this type of race on their calendar and the bigger Irish yards are stacked with suitable types. Given the conditions I think we are playing with redoubtable plodders who may stay on at big odds and pick up some decent enhanced place scraps if all goes well in running.
Of the home hopes I think CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK has the best proven stamina, it's run more on better ground but the Yard will have a tilt and almost certainly run to finish and then pick up what they can. RAPPER is a real favourite of mine as you know, excellent form and Course credentials and if its ridden conservatively and given a chance to be in contention on the turn hill whilst he may fail for lack of stamina he won't fail for lack of heart or ability. DIDIERO VALLIS is the type who can pop up at any time and this is exactly his sort of race to do so 3rd last year and optimal conditions for a repeat. I just feel the Irish are stronger-:
Michael - I think we have 2 cast iron chances with DUNBOYNE for Elliott and Jamie Codd and MR INCREDIBLE for the Mullins yard and with luck in running I can't see past those pair and will play F/Cast and T/Cast accordingly.
Aside from those pair I really do like PUNITIVE , if you ignore the Thyestes run he would be bang on with the front pair in the market and if running to previous and progressive form he looks very strong too and will form a bet and a T/Cast perm for me. It's very likely BALLYKEEL will be right on their coat tails too and I can't leave him out of the reckoning.DEFI BLEU lurks on an incredibly generous mark even from the UK handicapper and together with Western Zara is the type to get round at big Odds
The Irish really do have a nap hand here and I suggest shrapnel on the UK tips from Robin if that floats your boat.
TIPS (1) Dunboyne / (2) Mr Incredible / (3) Punitive / (4) Ballykeel / (5) DefI Bleu - see notes re. Captain Cattistock / Rapper and Didiero Vallis