MICHAEL - Cork 3.50 - 3 miles - 13 run - Soft / Heavy - Rain

 

This track usually rides better than you'd think and rarely gets very deep but its sure to be as testing as it can be here today.

 

The top of the market looks pretty strong but we have horses who will be running off higher penalised marks who may not be as well suited to the conditions as those they have met so far.

 

West Breeze is up in trip and penalised so may not be great value, the same applies to Run For Pat who has proven stamina at the trip but whose wins are on much better ground and lower marks and Waittillitellyou is another unproven at the trip and in this sort of ground. I want to take them on given those circumsatnces.

 

At bigger odds I found it very hard to leave out the likes of Wild Hunt who has form at the trip and on this sort of ground but who is still over-handicapped i think and well over a stone higher than its winning mark. Robyndeglory is in the TRACKER and a fairly recent winner but i just sense the trip and the ground will prevent a repeat. WOWSHAM is the one at big Odds that I found hardest to leave out and if there was a non runner I'd be keen for a small punt. It has some solid UK form at this sort of trip off a mark a shade higher than it runs off here and that form may have been overlooked by the home based market.

 

Sainte Dona is a real dark horse and had one very impressive Maiden win but frankly I have no idea if this is a good handicap mark or not and there were better options with more solid form to assess. FRANCISCAN ROCK is in the Tracker and has been one of its success stories with a host of good runs. It's market leader and has a favourites chance.

 

I'm keenest though in order of preference in, MARTHA DIVINE whose best recent runs have been at the trip in heavy conditions off marks of 115 and 116 including one over Course and Distance. It has no hiding place if repeating that level of form here off a mark of 115 with a 7lbs Claimer and frankly I think it's overpriced in the early market. EUROBOT is on a declining mark but the past form at the trip in mud off a mark 13lbs below its most recent placed run suggests that this may be the best opportunity it has had in a considerable time. It's one of those that jumps off the page a little (like Wowsham). Finally and another in the Tracker System s ROBINSTOWN it is off top weight but its best recent form was at Clonmel in similar conditions and trip and when you take off todays Claim it's only a pound above that weight. If you want a third poke to some enhanced places this would be the one

 

TIPS (1) Martha Divine / (2) Eurobot / (3) Robinstown