Bath 4.35
Bath 4.35 4 Moabit @ 5/2 (win) / 1 Champagne Champ @ 6/1 - 1/2 point each way
(consider a small reverse forecast and also see notes for Tricast suggestion)
BATH 4.35 -: Tough stamina sapping conditions and fitness and ability to handle soft Going will be key. The added issue is that parts of the
Course have had to be re-laid due to a bug infestation. The Turf may not be fully recovered in places and that could mean "loose" winter
type Going. I think logically, and bona fide Flat horse returning after a break, however good and progressive; would have to be exceptionally
well ahead of its mark and bob on fit to win this, so I have looked at 5 fit from the Jumps/AW and Jumps. Of them the likes of EDDMAURICE;
JACK BEAR and QUORTHQUAN look likely place material in that order, so IF you want a Tricast perm take the first 2 and add to these pair.
MOABIT is around 5/2, a small win bet, fit; in form, ground fine and a perfectly capable Flat performer off marks around 78; up to a mark of
82; the other "most likely is CHAMPAGNE CHAMP also ticks every box of fit; form, Going and usually competitive on the Flat off marks around
88 and 89, indeed not top weight for no good reason and runs off 87 here. There is a bit of collateral form; Moabit beating Champagne Champ
by 4 lengths in receipt of 16 pounds late last Flat season, CC gets a hefty 11lbs pull now for 4 lengths so logically should come out on top. I
think though that PFNicholls with daughter Megan up will want this, I do think its worth following Trainers on Flat early who have been "on the
go" all winter over Jumps or AW; as opposed to those just "kick starting"; so the logical route is a small win bet; a small e/w bet; a small reverse
Forecast and a small Tricast Perm - a bit of interest on a quiet day, when the logic will hopefully work for us.