Cheltenham 5.30 - Ian
"its nice to be back for the week hopefully Tipping form is fresh and not rusty" - the key here is (a) the trip as precious few are proven at it, or remotely near it and (b) the jockey, there are some boys in here like Codd / Waley-Cohen who are as good as any professional (O'Connor similarly) others may be a fraction off that ability level. With a storm and winds/ rain I have to ignore the market and focus on form facts and two stand out. JUST YOUR TYPE may be just the type for this race, raw and with huge potential. The way it stayed on at Newcastle in the Eider over 4 miles after being baulked and almost stopped in its tracks indicated a dour stayer and similar when falling with race at its mercy at Exeter. IF and that is the question in a race of this type, it is on 4 feet at the bottom of the hill, I would expect a place to enhanced odds at decent price. The other one is IMPULSIVE STAR who ran a lovely race in this last year to the bottom of the hill. Has proven form to 3 miles and 6 furlongs and Waley-Cohen is highly likely to be a bit more reserved on first circuit and keep a bit more in the tank.
Of the remainder I would be very worried about LE BREUIL with the incomparable Jamie Codd up but stamina in likely heavy Going has to be taken too much on trust even for Mr Codds brilliance. The same stamina concerns ruled out Mulcahys Hill and Jerrysback, better Going would have seen both as possible tips, if they stay are also huge dangers. Johanos and Whisperinthebreeze are a likely pair neither of whom will appreciate the heavy rain due.