A maximum field for a typically competitive renewal and with a warm drying day yesterday (when it felt like proper Spring weather) and another drying day today the going could edge towards genuinely Good ground with a nice covering of grass and a bit of cut by start time, so really no excuses for anything today at least.

 

Having looked at the full field, Sean (Placespotter) and Ian (Speculator) have come up with their picks and then assessed the merits of the merits between the British and Irish contingents in a race that has generally favoured the home based horses.

 

Sean - Of the Irish contingent here I would give an each way squeak to Doctor Duffy for Cliff Byrnes, it hasn't won since September 2020 but has always been one I've thought has untapped potential. Foxy Jacks for Mouse Morris was 9/19 at the Festival in the 2020 Albert Bartlett and looks to have been done no favours off a mark of 145. Discordantly won for me and us last time at nice odds and I'm surprised and disappointed they've declared in this race to be honest as after that win they suggested they may stay at intermediate trips, I don't think a truly run 3 miles plus here plays to the horses strengths at all. 

 

BEN DUNDEE has been my pick for this race since being runner up in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, I think its been aimed at this race by Andrew Lynch and gets a decent mark here and has Festival form finishing 5th in the 2020 Brown Advisory. Noble Yeats for Emmett Mullins is a dark horse ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen but best form so far is at shorter and it wouldn't be a surprise if it won BUT I don't think its the value BEN DUNDEE is.

 

Like Discordantly I also tipped DEATH DUTY to win last time, its first win in 5 years from memory but it's always been in pretty deep and I thought at the time that was its best chance in ages. Its got proven stamina, it gets a penalty but I think the British handicapper would have raised it anyway and nothing boosts a horses confidence like a win, they do know when they've run well and I actually prefer this one to the race favourite Flouer at the prices although that one will be tough to beat.

 

Ian - I can't see too much in the home contingent at bigger prices other than Rapper for Henry Daly who looks progressive and did have Festival experience when finishing 7th in the Pertemps here last year. A 7lbs penalty doesn't help but at the price might be worth a small bet. Vintage Clouds won this last year and can never be discounted but drying ground may just be against it. Lostintranslation has been picked by a few trustworthy scribes and if it could get back to its form of 2 years ago you can see why, I wouldn't rule out an improved run but can't see enough recent evidence to suggest its going to fire here today. Our Power for Sam Thomas is one i like a lot, and I think can run a place, Geriqault Roque is full of stamina and potential but is another who may have preferred it softer underfoot though I can see him charging up the hill and he narrowly missed selection. FRODON is going to do what Frodon does hopefully, jump for fun, lead them all a merry dance and hope like Vintage Clouds he can get the others out of their comfort zone. It would bring the roof off but it would be another massive weight carrying performance, my head says NO my heart says I'll have a couple of quid each way.

 

Fantastikas for Twiston Davies is very unexposed but how good the form is we'll only find out here, Does He Know seems to be drifting in the market to a more realistic price but this will be a whole new experience. Of the home contingent after much deliberation and a changed mind two or three times I landed on FULL BACK for Gary Moore (picking ones from that yard usually sends me out in a rash!) but it has been very impressive and hopefully trained to the day and CORACH RAMBLER for Lucinda Russell who is a horse who can travel very sweetly and who I think is ideally suited by this trip and not the longer ones they have tried, if the Warwick run hasn't drained it I think it has excellent claims here and The New Course win earlier in the season was visually very impressive.

 

So our combined thoughts are very much in the confidence of Sean in BEN DUNDEE and DEATH DUTY and in the final thoughts and considerations of Ian for FULL BACK and CORACH RAMBLER and if you want a longer shot (as well as Frodon) then the guys have highlighted Doctor Duffy and Rapper for you.

 

Staking -: Tips - BEN DUNDEE and FULL BACK / Trackers - Death Duty + Corach Rambler. (shrapnel - see notes at your discretion)

 

---------- 

 

 

The Advisor joins Sean here and the pair didn't take too long to agree that the Irish really do look set to dominate this race. So, over first to Sean and then a couple of shrapnel bets from The Advisor looking to find some home grown each way value to enhanced places at big prices.

 

Sean-:

 

I'll go slightly against the market here with my Irish selections.

 

I think at nice prices the pick of the Irish horses are CHAMPION GREEN for Joseph O'Brien, the drying ground will suit and the headgear is an interesting option and I'll be disappointed if this sweet traveller isn't bang in contention. I rate it very closely with HMS SEAHORSE who looks to be an improving type, a bit off the radar of the market and one who could be peaking at just the right time.  

 

Gaelic Warrior and The Tide Turns both have favourites chances but at the price I also think PRAERIE DANCER another one for Joseph can get in and spoil what many think could be a Willie / Gordon carve up, clear signs last time that this one was coming to hand and the one of Elliotts that I think IS really over-priced is BRITZKA it's had a declared wind operation and they go for blinkers so clearly throwing everything at it and the horse is one with still untapped potential.

 

The Advisor -:

 

It's hard to see past the Irish team here but a couple of the home contingent at big prices caught my eye - Dan Skeltons TOO FRIENDLY has good Flat speed, will welcome every hour of drying ground and is one who should be off the bridle for a long way whatever pace they go and if the wind op works may just find more than it has in a battle to the line. Alan King should hopefully get a long awaited and well deserved Festival winner earlier in the day and FOREVER WILLIAM is an unexposed type who may be suited by the pace and big field here and could sneak an enhanced place at big odds.

 

TIPS -: CHAMPION GREEN + HMS SEAHORSE - Trackers - Prairie Dancer + Too Friendly / (shrapnel - Britzka + Forever William)   

 

-------

 

Other Races - some each way value (Tracker Bets 1/2 point each way)

 

1.30 MIGHTY POTTER @ 7/1  looks the each way value for any enhanced place odds in a race probably dominated by the top 4 or 5 in the market (places to 3rd)

 

3.30 With a strong top 2 , 3rd place is up for grabs and if one of the top 2 don't deliver both ADAGIO @ 22/1  + ZANAYHIR @ 25/1 are silly prices each way (places to 3rd)

 

4.10 In a race likely dominated by the guys from Ireland;  BURNING GLORY @ 10/1  is a game mare who should be bang in contention at nice e/w odds.  (places to 4th)

 

--------

 

 

(let's hope 10 is a lucky number)