Downpatrick 3.45

SEAN 

Downpatrick 3.45 - Ulster National - 3 miles 4 1/2 furlongs - 15 run - Soft to Yielding.
 
Downpatrick is a very unique track, right handed, I call it "the big dipper" as there are lots of hills and hillocks and you are constantly climbing and the falling down the hills, particularly the downhill after the start finish line which is a bit hair raising for a horse who has not been there and a very stiff climb to the finish. The TV (a bit like the undulations at Chepstow in the UK) does not reflect how undulating it actually is. The other unique aspect is how narrow it is in places so it pays to get handy if you can as you certainly can't run 4 or 5 abreast in places. It is also one of only 2 tracks up in the North so locally trained horses need a close inspection
 
There is a maximum field of 15 plus 3 reserves so enhanced places should stand and the Going is soft with Yielding patches. It may dry a bit but the water can sit longer in those hollows so it may ride Good in places and very soft in others.
 
I ended up with a short list of around 5-6 and prior to that took a long look at them all and a longer look at the likes of Whatsyourstatus (comes off a break and on I think to follow in summer jumping); Amaulino (who won this in 2019, r/u 2020, unplaced 21, has had a few P2P successes but may now be beyond him to win this); Forza Milan (who I'm always reluctant to leave out but i think better over a bit shorter and the smaller obstacles); Thunderosa (who hasn't yet transferred hurdles form to fences or proved stamina at this trip); Joshua Webb (too short based on actual form for me) and Portstorm (again too short for me for actual form and not yet really proven as a Chaser).
 
That left me with my shortlist from which I have left out Fort Worth Texas, who has some nice P2P form so who should not want for stamina and who has had two quiet runs after a 16 month break. I have put this one in the summer tracker as I do think once fully fit it can win races and one I like the profile of but not quite today. The other one left out today but of interest is Agent Boru who may be totally exposed but below a win mark of 118 on 116 and one who could run an enhanced place at a price but I think just in a bit too deep here.
 
The one i favour most is ENVOI PIERJI whose run last time can probably be marked up as it was hampered and lost momentum as a result when running very well. It has some scope to improve and I have no real concerns about its stamina and it will be very disappointing if its not home in the first 3 or 4. SPADES AND TRUMPS is my preferred Gavin Cromwell runner its lightly raced, progressing possibly still and theoretically 24lbs well in for beating the top weight Definite Plan off levels a while back.I can't see any reason why it shouldn't be right in contention.
 
At their respective prices I think there is value in a small shrapnel bet on DEFINITE PLAN who has Course winning form over Hurdles, whose mark reflects a Cheltenham win in the Autumn (2021) but who should get a good run round and definitely the class of the race. I also think Cromwells second string PEACHES AND CREAM who hasn't run since a promising 4th place in The Troytown is a definite for your/our Trackers and I think aimed at some of the Irish Festival Meetings in the next few months has a race win in it for sure. May just need this but Gavin can ready one!.
 
TIP - SPADES AND TRUMPS / Tracker - Envoi Pierji (if you want some shrapnel or t/Cast Perm then Definite Plan and Peaches And Cream in that order).