It is another dry day today with a cutting easterly wind and the ground may well be starting to dry out now. I'm a bit vexed as to what point pudding yielding becomes better ground, so will stake sensibly. There is plenty of rain in the coming week due in so meetings later in the week should be back on genuinely softer Going.

 

At the top end of the market, Siberian Star; A Different World and Round The Buoy all have solid claims but don't represent each-way value. Not every race is won by one at double figure Odds and we are about due to have a race of that type so we will take them on in terms of value but all rate strong opponents and most likely a winner in that threesome.

 

Kilberry Chianti and Pale Blue Dot are pretty unexposed and unexposed at the trip respectively and both entered my calculations, Bronson In Blue, Trickey Trix and Smashthelamp are competitively priced and also all have decent claims. BinB will benefit from being back at 3 miles and has won here and been a runner up at Tipperary, may just need a few more lbs off the handicapper. TT has fallen the last twice and really needs to jump a clear round first and foremost but is on a very nice mark and a danger if getting round and Smashthelamp was a small stake winner for me on the 31 January at 15/2 and a real danger again here but not a type I see quite well enough handicapped today.

 

Heisenberg for Noel Meade makes handicap debut and one I'll watch with a keen eye and at the big priced end of the market I wouldn't dismiss big runs from either Pickamix who has some decent UK form nor Lean Araig who is I think best at a slightly shorter intermediate trip but good value for a small side bet at around 50/1 to an enhanced place if that floats your boat.

 

I really narrowed my thoughts down to 4 horses and the one who just missed investment but a nice reserve for us to have is Whenurgoodurgood. Its best form was a win off 95 at Wexford on Good ground, runs off 99 here and if the word "Good" got in to the Going description I would be having a small side bet, I just don't think it'll quite dry out enough though.

 

EXCITING OSCAR would be my top pick here. Its back hurdling and we have to take on board it did suffer from heat stress over Fences last time but that's my only small niggle. It won over hurdles off a mark of 92, placed off 100 and off a mark of 97 is very interesting and has form at the bigger Irish tracks.

 

LESSOFDNEGATIVITY returns too to Hurdles where it has won off marks of 93 and 99, it can run prominently which I think could be an asset on this ground and IF they get the fractions right I think a mark of 105 with a good 5lbs Claimer looks about right. NICOLES MILAN is exposed, but consistent, i think this is the best trip for the horse and with wins off 86 and most recently 95, its back below a mark of 100 and one you can normally trust to put in 100%

 

 

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If anything this is even tougher so I will just throw some shrapnel at it.

 

Big Leg Up gets a big penalty but could be anything. Super Citizen won this last year off a mark of 108 and runs off 105 and will most likely make a very bold bid. I tipped Quarry Girl to be runner up last time, its up 2lbs and I just wonder if the drying ground will suit as much. Fox Watch is unexposed and has loads of potential, Fou Diligence and Echoes of Family are both serious and solid competitors both very consistent and both deserve a win and Diggin Deep is a horse with a good winning record who may just need the run. There are 7 there who could quite frankly fill the first 7 places and really difficult to choose between any of them.

 

So "value" is the way in to the race for me seeking some enhanced place value at a nice price.

 

Avec Espoir just missed out on an investment as will be the back up reserve if either selection is a non runner, it has good CD form and looks ready to strike, Glen Ava at a big priced has been noted a couple of times but seems to take a step backwards every time you think it's going to make a move forwards and Krisquin who is in th Tracker (see below) was a CD winner 2 years ago off a mark of 79, but is back to a mark of 82 and anything that's 100/1 ish who has CD form should be worth a few bob each way.

 

My speculative  main pair though are BE MY DREAM whose bst runs have been at this kind of trip off marks of 89 and 91, and who has to have a squeak off a mark of 85 and PRESENTING POINT who has twice been runner up in Chases off marks of 95 and 97 who is variable regards trip but i think ideally suited by this trip and worth a punt therefore off a mark of 95 with a 4lbs claimer up.