SEAN - Placespotter -: The Irish Lincoln has 20 runners and a few reserves, so a great betting heat. Historically low numbers of those in the middle prevail, but a canny ride slotting in from the outside (high numbers) can work if the race pans out, not necessarily in this race, but at the track. The Going and race fitness is a key factor as is the preparation those coming off a break have had. A lot to take on trust in that respect.
I narrowed my choice down to 3 horses in the end and HONOR OAK is in the tracker, nice draw, runs prominently; has won off a 110 day break in the past but just put off in the final analysis by the handicap mark - 10lbs above win level and that might just find it out. A must for a Tricast though I think.
The pair i like are THEOBOLD is race fit from AW could be anything on turf and has some decent juvenile form, Jim Bolger will no doubt have laid out for the race and that fitness will be a massive asset. I also like MASTER SPEAKER there is nothing "stand out" but just ticks every box for me as a very solid each way chance, has often finished well at 1 mile in traffic but has tactical 7 furlong speed, has been very competitive in decent handicaps off marks in low 90's; get in here off a mark of 87, well drawn in stall 6 and had a run not too long ago to blow away the cobwebs. He ticks more boxes than almost anything and at a nice price and is a percentage e/w call.
Of the rest, if they do go off too fast then one who could stay on to a place is Warnaq, nicely drawn in stall 5 and best form is at 10 furlongs or further, so don't write that one off either.
I looked at the Downpatrick National at 3.50 north of the Border but a disappointing field of 10, a very compressed market and whilst Amaulino and Tongie (Tracker) have scope, they are unproven at the trip and really, even though it is too short at 4/1 OUT SAM is the one they all have to beat here.
IAN - PLACESPOTTER - Carlisle 4.35 - a glance at the Cards this morning on a rare day off and I couldn't help but notice my old friend LETEMGO who did so well for me last winter. Has started to drop down the Handicap despite some decent runs when carrying too much weight. A Class 2 place over Course and Distance a while back bodes well and is really well handicapped with old rival RIVABODIVA who I see as the main danger here. On form at start of Letemgo's renaissance last season (a place at Ayr at 25/1) LETEMGO is 14lbs better off with Rivabodiva for a 2 length defeat, and that's the kind of collateral pointer that gives me confidence for a big run at nice odds, and Rivabodiva as possible fun reverse Forecast..
