Sunday 25th March
NO TIPS TODAY here are a couple of races worth of a "mention" and very small financial interest.
MENTIONS
NAAS 4.50 4 Hit The Silk @ 12/1 / 8 On The Go Again @ 10/1 / 13 Sorelle Delle Rose @ 16/1 = £2 e/w each horse.
(PP and Sky go odds to 5th, all others it seems to 4th, but worth checking before betting)
DONCASTER 4.45 8 Archippos @ 14 -16/1 e/w = £2 each way (check to see if Sky go Odds to 4th?
A tough Card to fathom at Doncaster, the kind of Card you can blow your brains on to be honest, a decent set of NH Cards at Ascot and Carlisle;
BUT nothing that stands out to be backed with the possible exception of SAMUEL JACKSON in the 4.55 at Ascot with Lough Derg Farmer for
the Forecast. We do have a couple of races to look at being the Irish Lincoln at Naas and the 4.45 at Doncaster, but both are very much small
stake "mention races" for a very small monetary, as opposed to point outlay and the brief logic follows.
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The Irish Lincoln again gets staged at Naas this year and if recent form there including last year is relevant, a low draw is a big asset.
The Going is Heavy with a bit of Soft, but in Ireland, Heavy means Heavy and we have to take that in to account, as we will early season
form. The likes of OnenightIdreamed (dr 12); Canary Row (dr 15) and Pincheck (dr 11) all hold strong claims but have to overcome the
perceived draw bias, it would be no surprise to see any of them run very well and if they do it is a good yardstick for our early season
analysis holding up well. The one drawn high who would be a nailed on tip drawn lower is LUCKY MISTAKE and he could have a very
similar profile to Leader Writer in the UK version yesterday, one to track and follow for sure!
The 3 we fancy most against the field, with draw, going, form and early season abilities checked and validated are HIT THE SILK who
could be a very progressive horse this year; ON THE GO AGAIN in excellent form, ideally drawn (we think) and likely to arrive late and
SORELLE DELLE ROSE from a big Yard who could be a horse with some untapped potential and a nice draw. STAKING SENSIBLY is
the key message, a bit of fun to boost we hope the coffers and if we can grab some nice place money like yesterday it gives more confidence
to the early season logic and form analysis, which like anything else, you have to warm up; hone and perfect in these early skirmishes and
I was very encouraged on that measure by two very nicely priced placed efforts at Doncaster yesterday. The Flat season is a MARATHON
not a Sprint, and that is how we will be treating it in the next few weeks, gradually easing our way in.
At DONCASTER in the 4.45 Archippos won this race last year, should be fine with the slightly drying ground and comes from a dual purpose
yard that has had a good winter over Jumps, and that "on the go" mentality; is another factor in early season Flat form, finding yards "in gear"
as they have been busy all winter, as they can have early advantage, over Yards that are traditionally "slower starters" although the advent
of the AW scene has somewhat nullified that facet of form analysis