We'll focus on 3 races today: thoughts from Sean, myself and The Advisor.

 

 

The Going will be interesting, understand why it's Heavy but its fresh ground on the New Course meaning really none of it should have been watered until they hit the hill so it may ride wet soft as opposed to deep heavy early one. Once they get in to hit and with 2 drying days we could end up with "pudding" tomorrow!!!

 

A competitive renewal and plenty in with chances. Between us we narrowed it down to a short list of 5!

 

Sean - Of the Irish contingent, SIRE DU BERLAIS is the obvious starting point, he has a great record in the race having won off 152 and 160 in the past, older now and not quite as good as he was off a mark of 156 with a 7lbs Claimer he has to be an each way banker.

 

Born Patriot for Peter Fahey is one I really looked long and hard at and just missed out. It should outrun odds but my only niggle is I think its wholly exposed off this mark and I think it would need a few pounds of improvement. THE JAM MAN is one  think will outrun odds and capable of nicking a place, its won at Navan at this trip on Soft and Heavy, has a nice bit of collateral form with Commander of Fleet that was franked yesterday and from a smaller Irish yard a bit off the radar. 

 

Of the Elliott contingent I fear them all really but can't find reason to invest in Tullybeg; Sassy But Classy nor Folcano but DUNBOYNE who has been hampered the last twice and eased as a result may have sneaked under the radar at a nice mark here. It won on heavy and I would be disappointed if not placed. Winter Fog will be a danger and its a shame Go Another one is a non runner as I had high hopes for that one.

 

Ian - I have a hunch that the likes of Alaphillipe who has an obvious chance may just get caught out here but the new handicap mark. If The Cap Fits for Harry Fry seems out of form but off this reduced mark could do some damage and that wouldn't be a surprise. Fusil Raffles is another with place chances and we know Ballyandy loves this place but I think better over shorter. 

 

The best value amongst the home crew may be THIRD WIND for Hughie Morrison who was 4th in this in 2020, has form in heavy Going and has no excuses off its mark and also MILL GREEN for Henderson who seemed to be revitalised over this sort of trip last time in the Haydock mud and who may even at 10 have some untapped potential over it.

 

At very big odds I'll have my £1 e/w big priced tip of the day on THE COB from the Pauling yard who landed a big win yesterday with a not dissimilar type and THE COB gets the trip and is oK in the mud off a nice mark.

 

 

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A similarly competitive race in the mud!

 

Sean -: Henry De Bromhead runs a very unexposed horse in CAVALRY MASTER it drops back in trip and they have a tongue tie and cheekpieces. I am 100% convinced that the drop in trip will eek out something for this horse and the added aids suggest they are throwing the kitchen sink at it. I've not really seen it tipped up nor mentioned anywhere but I'll stand by my convictions.

 

Fancy Foundations for Elliott is very unexposed but GRAND PARADIS ticks all the boxes for me, placed in its last 3 runs it seems to be both improving and running in to peak form and Heavy Going is fine and i'll be very disappointed to be honest if it doesn't win this against a strong British contingent.

 

The Advisor -: I can't not have a saver on THE GLANCING QUEEN although I'm not sure it would have wanted so much rain. Stolen Silver is being well supported and understandably so but I think at this trip the rain has done nothing to aid its chances. Slate House has CD winning form, found a level it could thrive off recently but steps back into the fire and a danger but no investment for me today. 

 

Adrimel has a strong chance but has been kept to smaller fields but I think FUSIL RAFFLES can take a hand with proven stamina and a drop back in trip a logical move especially when stamina will be at a premium.  Imperial Alcazar and Celebre D'Allen are understandably at the top end of the market but off increased marks are somewhat hostage to fortune I think and as a result not great value. The home banker for me is SPIRITOFTHEGAMES who was third in this race in 2019, 6th in 2020 and who drops back to this trip and has plenty of form in the conditions.

 

One i do think can run a big race and may be an enhanced place is CHINWAG its got best form on this type of going, and Tom Scudamore will I think race prominently and give the horse every chance.

 

 

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Sean had a long look at The Kim Muir along with myself and with time getting near to send this mail out we'll leave you with the selections and the thought we think an Irish domination but a couple of the home horses with an enhanced place squeak!