A maximum Chase field size of 14 runners with 3 reserves so enhanced place odds are guaranteed.

 

Clonmel as i have mentioned before can suit course specialists, uphill past the finish line and then a long run down the back straight before turning in up the hill again and it can also suit prominent types.

 

The obvious place to start is with ENDURING LOVE tipped last time and a winner here over 2 miles and 4 furlongs at 7/1, it gets 3 miles fine, is clearly in form, not overly penalised and still lower than best winning mark. It has to face an Odds on favourite who has yet to finish it the first half of the field in it's 3 Chase races so there should be some e/w value to be had and I will take Enduring lOve to again beat Mosstown Miller who reopposes on the same terms as when finishing 3rd to Enduring lOve last time but who may not be as well suited to the selection over this trip.

 

Mosstown Miller will be a clear danger as will the Odds On favourite but there are Going and Stamina concerns about many others in the race and some at BIG prices have fewer questions to answer if they can find some form in more suitable conditions.

 

Killeaskins First is in decent form but upped in trip and there is no great evidence that the trip will suit it, Highstreetfashion is also up in trip from 2 and a half miles with similar stamina concerns and that and the Going are also unknowns for the likes of Courting Vickie and Some Joke who is first reserve, neither have much Chasing experience either.

 

So we get in to those at bigger prices with at least some proven form under the conditions at the trip and here at Clonmel.

 

WEST IS BEST won this race last year, that was off a mark of 92 and it subsequently placed off a mark of 97, back off 93 today it has excellent place claims if returning to that sort of form. THREE LOUD KNOCKS too was a runner up over 2 and a half miles here in early January, has plenty of P2P form at 3 miles and off a mark of 86 is more than capable of running in to some place money.

 

I wouldn't discount Lacken Bridge if either of those or the main selection was a non runner; it has Course and Distance place form in this race in the not too distant past off much higher marks.

 

I must also point out the rank outsider - RUDY CATRAIL - this is one of those horses that goes off very quick and invariably tires and makes jumping errors and gets reeled in a few furlongs out, BUT, it has nicked races like this before off mark of 95 and would have needed its last run, where it ran true to form going off fast and off a mark of 93, and at around 40-50/1 if it does get a soft lead and takes a blow down the back and keeps a bit in reserve it can run a place at big Odds, it there is a track tailor made for that to happen this would be one of them!

 

 

In the same way that Enduring lOve won for us last time ASK AND ANSWER did the same at 15/2 over 2 miles and 5 furlongs, that win has been coming for a while as you'll know from our analysis and with the horse being equally comfortable over 3 miles I see no reason to desert it now.

 

The market leader is Tony Martins My Boy Bob who is upped in trip significantly and the other co-favourite is Wild Hunt who is in form but whose best form so far is at half a mile shorter than this trip so I'm happy to stick with ASK AND ANSWER.

 

It's a deeper race though than the earlier one.

 

Grey Habit ran a runner up place at the weekend at Fairyhouse but i have to say all it's best runs so far have been there so I'll oppose it on that basis. Emancipator has placed 4th / 2nd / 3rd on last 3 runs and is a big danger but none of that form has been on heavy going and it may be vulnerable and not great valu as a result. Rose Milan is a favourite of ours and always a threat and was runner up to a 20/1 pick of ours (Lily of Dromond) over 2 miles last time, Rose Milan has form at this trip but the price is a bit skinny for me today. Mahler Appeal flits between P2P and Rules, won 3 mile P2P last time but Handicap Hurdle form so far has been poor.

 

Golden Glen is solid at slightly shorter trips but has a place chance and Ruhm Und Ehre is a big danger on the basis of a runner up effort at Punchestown over 3 miles but that was on pretty good Yielding ground and i can't find any substantive form in ground this heavy. Holiday In Kerry ; The Royal Pump and Kellies Dream are all also better over shorter trips so far and whilst any of those may improve for the step up; there are again a few at bigger prices with proven form in the past in these conditions.

 

The Grey Guy at 15 years of age has a sporting chance of running a place and not discounted and neither is Kalamkan who has 3 mile P2P form and some old Handicap Hurdle form off marks around 100 make the mark of 80 today more than interesting. Of those pair either would come in to the reckoning if we have any early non runners.

 

JOHNNYS GIRL though is one i want an investment in, its best form is a win at Limerick over 2 miles and 6 furlongs in heavy Going and I think this trip here will definitely suit it and I can also see MICK THE JIVER who gets 3 miles in mud over Fences and Hurdles, despite being a better Chaser, enjoying the conditions enough to sneak a place.

 

TIP - Ask And Answer / Tracker - Johnnys Girl / Shrapnel - Mick The Jiver (reserve Kalamkan)