ROBIN - Ffos Llas 3.55 Handicap Chase - Class 4 - 3 miles (12 run) Heavy

 

We saw a 66/1 winner of the long distance Chase at Exeter on Tuesday and it would not be a massive surprise if something turned the form book upside down here.

 

The top 3 in the market are Pres (Course debut) ; Heavenly Promise and Still Believing and obviously all 3 have claims but I'll always take on a 2/1 shot here and the other pair may not be bottomed out for the rest of the winter NH season if their Trainers have other races planned out.

 

At the very bottom of the market Cruising Bye has a couple of bits of Course and Course and Distance form in Heavy that make my eyes water. Now 14 but not without a chance of an each way place and a small change horse if ever I've seen one. Cavok also caught my eye as it has form in similar Going at Uttoxeter and also on P2P fields, if you ignore 2 poor runs at Chepstow, where it simply may have hated the undulations, the one I probably fear the most together with Lac Sacre at a shorter price..

 

I can't decide between the Dai Rees pair of STEEL NATURE and MISTY MAI and will therefore split my stakes and make them TRACKER tips. That is more a case of them being so equally matched than any lack of confidence. Both have Course form, both form in Heavy, both proven at the trip and off decent marks and in the case of Steel Native has won over further. I don't think Rees plays any games here, his horses are always raced to win and he will have eyed this race up as a perfect opportunity.