Newcastle 1.55 - Conditional Jockey Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 7 1/2 furlongs - Good / Good to Soft (rain about later than race start time)

 

There doesn't seem to be a great deal of depth to this race and at the head of the market is one we are following long-term in Our Idic Boy. It won over CD in November beating one we'd tipped and going in to the notebooks. It then ran runner up at Ludlow and has been put away then until today. I think they've come for the Good ground and will give the horse some experience this season and then a good summer of sun on its back. It'll be tough to beat but the price will be restrictive and there may be enhanced place each way value elsewhere. If you want a win saver i'd not put you off.

 

Freethinker, up 8lbs for a winand Ribeye who fell when in contention are solid rivals but with all three likely to go off at less than 5/1; there were 4 at bigger odds who caught my eye for today and in the future.

 

Songofthelark for Lucinda Russell should improve for the step up in trip but looks a long term prospect. Geonice is one with some form at the trip, winning and then runner up at Hexham off marks of 86 and 91, its going to be competitive off a mark of 90 and another that's probably here for the Good ground off a break of 96 days. I just preferred a pair a little more but wouldn't put you off a a small e/w on this if the price is anything above 16/1.

 

The pair I will seek to gain some e/w profit on are BONNY HOUXTY who is back over Hurdles and who has a decent form profile and should run well for a long way in this and VESHENSKAYA who gets 3 miles and on a nice mark on best form and having had a wind operation will hopefully put in a better finishing effort than previously as it has been one who travels well in to a race and then flattens off.

 

Shrapnel only race and we'll go with BONNY HOUXTY and VESHENSKAYA with Geonice the reserve if either of the tips didn't run.

 

 

David Pipe runs three of his French imports, an angle Ian flagged up around Christmas time was to track these and to wait for them to have 2-3 runs and then find a UK mark they could be competitive off. It's one that is already working well and delivering profit and all 3 today are being tracked.

 

I feel that whilst Paradise Island and Affoburg will still need their runs today that RED HAPPY may be ready to deliver something tangible. It ran well for a way here in the Devon National that Ian found a big priced winner of a few weeks back (Captain Drake at 20/1) but although that was a marathon trip RED HAPPY best form in France was at this sort of trip in soft and heavy Going. 

 

At the head of the market the top 3 do look very strong but it could be a real bog by race time and for that reason I'll leave Longshanks, Fulgirix and Getmegold off the investment list on this occasion. Madeira Mist may need the run and Racewithlove needs to prove it can jump a bit more fluently for my liking.

 

The other one that caught me eye is ENDLESS FLIGHT for Sue Gardener. It has a Course Hurdle win over a furlong shorter in Heavy Going, has taken to fences OK and has been running over significantly further than this, that stamina and a return to this trip in probably Heavy Going suggests the horse may currently be over-priced.

 

------

 

In the Exeter 4.40 I think I've tipped every one, or certainly the majority of them in the past 2 years at some point. Some have been disappointing, a few unlucky but most of them owe us a few bob.

 

I'm interested that Jurys Out gets blinkers and that may help after some desperately poor runs and Kesteral Valley gets cheek-pieces so better runs from those may not be a surprise. 

 

The one who has been unlucky and who should certainly get its conditions here is BALLYBREEN and I'll have a shrapnel bet on that one.

 

 

--------