Leopardstown 2.10- Mares Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 18 run - Good to Yielding

 

There are 2 very dangerous reserves in here and I would certainly recommend a "saver" on first reserve MAID ON THE MOON as she is a big danger on known form and it's a refund for your bet if she doesn't get a run. The early price though is value. The second reserve Avandra is a dangerous type too.

 

At the top end of the market Mount Shensham is very much one to beat if you want a small win saver despite a 5lbs penalty. Wendell's Lass may struggle at this trip, Backfrotheraces has a squeak if staying the trip; I will TRACK Slip Jug forwards as she may just need the run but would probably have been a selection but for the 3 month break and Cooltobrid Eva is one at a big price who I think could surprise a few.

 

My top rated though are GOODIE GIRL who would have excellent claims as long as she doesn't have any mental scars from a fall when bang in contention last time, a winner in waiting on that visual evidence and marginally preferred to SLIM MARVEL who must have a great place chance at least in ideal conditions and trip off a nice handicap mark. At bigger Odds I am very quietly confident of a big run from FOLLY BEACH twice a runner up off a mark of 108 suggests ability and a drop back in trip would also be a big advantage and off a mark of 106 with a decent 5lbs claimer, I will be very disappointed if she isn't in the first 4-5 home here. (Sean) - don't forget the side bet on Maid On The Moon!

 

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Leopardstown 2.45 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 17 run - Good to Yielding.

 

This looks like a very deep race and I want to take a speculative approach in terms of price value.

 

Money Heist has a first hurdle run for 2 years and despite being "thrown in" at the weights does not have the value of around 5-6/1 on JOHN STOREY who I tipped to win on its last run on New Years Day. I don't think a 7lbs penalty will stop this one and I think they have waited for some better ground. 

 

Many have chances and the likes of Game And Glory, The Miracle Man, Sammy Smart, Doyen for A Drink (who I have added to my TRACKER) all have strong claims on certain pieces of form. On another day both The Lucky Lobster and Galon De Vauzelle, who is another thrown in here on best Chase form, would certainly have had an investment.

 

Aside from JOHN STOREY though, I cannot ignore the claims of JUNIPER HILL a 33/1 winner on seasonal debut who has had excuses since but who gets optimum conditions here and is back to an appealing mark and APPLES IN WINTER another very well handicapped and one who looks overpriced at 25/1 plus as does a 4th rated option if you want to play to 5 places in COZONE who is just too well handicapped to ignore and if you go back 3 years you will find enough evidence of stamina at this trip to wonder why they haven't tried more often than they have at it.   (MG)